Illustration: Chen Xia/GT

On the surface, the US government's recent decision to impose high tariffs on goods from more than 90 economies appears to be designed to reduce imports, revitalize American industries and increase tariff revenue.

Yet the economic consequences will likely prove far more complex than anticipated. The effectiveness of this protectionist policy will ultimately depend on retaliatory measures from affected nations and market reactions to American products.

When faced with punitive US tariffs, affected economies will not passively acquiesce. Instead, they will respond through trade diversion and supply chain rerouting. Consumer preferences are expected to shift away from American products. 

Developing nations hit by tariffs will experience export disruptions, rising unemployment and reduced income - making them less capable of purchasing American goods, not more. Their trade with the US will contract, not expand.

Beyond core necessities and critical technologies, many economies may choose to impose retaliatory tariffs on some mid-to-high-end American products and equipment for which alternatives are available. This creates a market opportunity where non-American products will actively displace US exports.

Average consumers worldwide will likely develop resistance to American products, especially high-priced ones, naturally gravitating toward more affordable alternatives of acceptable quality from other nations.

This represents not an orchestrated governmental response, but the authentic functioning of market forces. Similar patterns will emerge across consumer electronics, home appliances, textiles, furniture and numerous other categories.

Chinese manufacturing holds powerful competitive advantages in these market segments.

The high tariffs imposed by the US administration are severely damaging the economies of African countries. These policies have already led Lesotho to declare a two-year state of national disaster, and the South African citrus and automotive industries have been severely impacted, with unemployment rates rising.

Meanwhile, China has adopted a completely different strategy, proactively offering to eliminate import tariffs for almost all of its African partners. China has become Africa's largest bilateral trading partner, providing African countries with an essential alternative to the US market.

More importantly, China is not only providing market access to Africa but also laying a substantial foundation for the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area through large-scale investments in infrastructure construction, the establishment of factories and the provision of technical support.

China's manufacturing sector has developed significant economies of scale and cost advantages over the past few decades, enabling it to supply most mid-market goods at lower prices with greater efficiency.

When market demands shift, Chinese manufacturers rapidly adjust production rhythms, synchronizing orders, designs, technical specifications and even local certification with global customers in real-time, creating competitive "window period" advantages.

However, these benefits remain relative and temporary. Chinese manufacturing cannot automatically displace American products, as more economies redirect their exports toward global markets following the US disruption, intensifying competition.

In high-tech sectors with substantial entry barriers - such as advanced semiconductors, aviation engines, precision instruments, biotechnology and algorithmic software - China still faces formidable obstacles from the US and select developed nations. Additionally, geopolitical risks partially constrain China's expansion into premium markets, limiting its profit potential.

For Chinese manufacturing to maintain global competitiveness, it must accelerate structural upgrading, strengthen technological innovation, enhance service capabilities and develop international brands.